Copper Stalling on Weak China Data
On the back of the strong rally we’ve seen recently, copper prices are stalling on Thursday as traders digest the latest data weakness out of China. The October Manufacturing PMI was seen falling further into contractionary territory at 49.4 down from 49.5 last and below the 49.8 the market was looking for. The data serves as the latest evidence of a slow down in the Chinese economy and raises concerns over the copper demand outlook.
Health Concerns Reappear in China
Worrying too, has been the news this week of a fresh outbreak of a pneumonia-related illness in China. The WHO has warned over the outbreak which has seen hundreds of people hospitalised, sparking fears of a potential return to some of the COVID-era measures which, if seen would certainly pull commodities prices lower.
USD Still Key
Still, the main driver for copper prices recently has been the weak US Dollar. With the Fed now widely tipped to stay on hold through year end before cutting rates into next year, USD has undergone a huge repricing, reflected in the almost 8% gain we’ve seen in copper prices this month. Looking ahead today, traders will be focusing on the latest core PCE reading as well as the latest unemployment claims data. If these data points highlight any fresh weakness this should help revitalise upside in copper, weighing on USD.
Technical Views
Copper
The rally in copper has seen the market breaking out above the top of the contracting triangle pattern and the bearish trend line from 2022 highs. While above here, and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a further push higher and a test of 3.9410 next. To the downside, 3.6745 remains key support.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.