-1733308535.png)
OPEC Expectations
Crude prices are turning higher today with OPEC expectations and rising geopolitical tensions driving fresh buying through the middle of the week. Crude futures are now up around 3% on the week, despite a push higher in USD. OPEC+ is widely expected to extend supply cuts when it meets this weekend in the face of rising global supply and weakening demand. Indeed, weak recent demand signals out of China have underscored softer conditions in oil markets. With the current dynamic expected to continue into 2025, traders will be looking for a clear response from OPEC+ this week which holds the power to spark a further rally in crude near-term.
Geopolitical Tensions
Over the last week, geopolitical tensions around the globe have ratcheted. Threats of a deeper Israeli push into Lebanon, a rebel offensive in Syria, worrying Russian rhetoric and martial law being declared in South Korea, have each contributed to a worrying atmosphere. Traders sense the heightened risk of elevated supply disruption linked to these situations and any further negative headlines are likely to see crude prices push higher still.
USD Impact
Looking ahead this week, traders will also be watching US data and USD movements. Friday labour market data will be the headline focus with the potential for outsized moves should we see any serious USD volatility in response to any data surprises.
Technical Views
Crude
For now, the 67.45 level continues to act as a floor, underpinning crude. While this level holds, and with momentum studies turning higher, focus is on a fresh test of the 72.61 level with 77.64 the higher target if we break local highs.
.png)
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.