Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs SP500 Positioning & Key Levels 13/05/25
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Equity Positioning and Key Levels
FICC and Equities | 12 May 2025 |
Below is a recap of the GS positioning metrics:
Summary:
1. CTA Corner: The systematic macro community has slightly increased their positions but remains below average. Their positioning has improved from 1 out of 10 three weeks ago to nearly 3.5, equivalent to $185 billion in global equities. We anticipate continued buying, although at a slower pace, decreasing from $59 billion last week to $32 billion next week. Of this, $13 billion (41%) is expected to be in US equities.
2. GS PB: From May 2 to May 8, the GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate increased by 0.72%, compared to MSCI World TR's 1.25% gain. This was driven by a beta of +0.88%, offset by an alpha of -0.16% due to short side losses. Meanwhile, the GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate decreased by 0.08% in the same period, affected by negative alpha from short side losses, with beta remaining flat.
3. Buybacks: Weekly flows have remained consistent, finishing at 1.1 times the 2024 YTD average daily trading volume (ADTV) and 1.6 times the 2023 YTD ADTV, with a focus on Financials, Consumer Staples, and Health Care sectors.
CTA Corner Details:
- CTA Flows for the next week:
- Flat market: $21.49 billion in purchases ($7.61 billion into the US)
- Rising market: $26.06 billion in purchases ($12.32 billion into the US)
- Falling market: $0.12 billion in purchases ($1.05 billion out of the US)
- CTA Flows for the next month:
- Flat market: $23.11 billion in purchases ($13.46 billion into the US)
- Rising market: $49.65 billion in purchases ($31.56 billion into the US)
- Falling market: $78.73 billion in sales ($11.92 billion out of the US)
- Key SPX Pivot Levels:
- Short-term: 5584
- Medium-term: 5742
- Long-term: 5492
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!