US CPI In Focus
Today might well prove to be a pivotal day for the US Dollar with both the March CPI release and March FOMC minutes due. Inflation has been the catalyst behind the market’s shifting view on the Fed. With inflation having cooled sharply from last year’s highs, so too has the market’s projected rate oath softened. On the back of the inflationary drop in February and the banking sector turmoil which emerged in March, the US rates outlook has softened considerably. Today, traders will be looking to CPI to confirm a further drop in US CPI which should pave the way for either one further, smaller .25% hike from the Fed next month or an unchanged decision.
Forecasts For Today
On the numbers front, the market is looking for headline CPI at 5.1% annually, down from 6% prior. On the monthly readings, the market is looking for headline CPI at 0.2%, down from 0.4% prior and 0.4% down from 0.5% prior. If such a decline is recorded today, the market impact should be a clear drop in USD along with a lift in risk assets.
One market in particular which looks set to benefit should today’s US CPI confirm a fresh drop is crypto. ETH has seen a strong rally off the March lows and has recently broken above the 1751.21 level which is a major pivot for the market. While above here, ETH looks poised for further gains near-term.
Technical Views
ETHUSD
The rally in ETH has seen the market breaking above the 1751.21 level, moving higher within the large bull channel which has framed the recovery off last year’s lows. With momentum studies bullish, while price holds above the 1751.21 level, the focus is on a further push higher and a test of the 2018.21 level next.
.png)
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.