NFP In Focus
Today’sUS labour data will be in sharp focus as traders brace for the upcoming JulyFOMC meeting. With the FOMC minutes this week confirming the Fed’s plans topush ahead with aggressive tightening (.75% July hike) and Fed’s Waller andBullard both voicing support for such a move this week, it would likely take aheavy downside surprise to alter this view. USD is higher on the week, though haslost momentum ahead of the release. If today’s data is seen satisfying orbeating expectations, USD is likely to head higher once more.
Worthnoting that the 260k NFP forecast reflects a sharp slowdown in hiring from theprior month. However, if both earnings and unemployment rate are seen hittingforecasts this should keep the bullish USD view intact. A downside miss on theNFP print, however, might bring recessionary fears back into focus though stillfeels like the Fed will push ahead with .75% in July. A weak miss might,however, dilute rate expectations beyond July, weighing on USD.
Where toTrade US NFP Release?
NASDAQ
The specificway markets are likely to react to today’s data is hard to pin down. However,if USD is seen weaker in response to the release and risk assets trade higher,the Nasdaq looks to be a good option for trading a topside move. Price is currentlybasing in the lower end of the bear channel with MACD and RSI turning higher.Look for a break of the 12220.22 level targeting 12875.84 initially.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.