S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 11/9/26
S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 11/9/26
***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS
MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7440/7400
MONTHLY RANGE RES 7882 SUP 7490
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7620/10
WEEKLY RANGE RES 7821/07 SUP 7637/22
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7660/50
DAILY RANGE RES 7673 SUP 7531
2 SIGMA RES 7744 SUP 7460
GLOBEX RANGE RES 7641 SUP 7555
2 SIGMA RES 7685 SUP 7511
GAMMA FLIP 7721
DELTA FLIP 7710
PUT WALLS 7546/7500
CALL WALLS 7690/7708
UNFILLED GAPS 7541 - 7772
DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFL- 7620
WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7766
MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.3 (VVIX / VIX) 5.13
A VVIX/VIX ratio around 5.75 suggests both are rising together, with no strong hidden tail-hedging through excessive out-of-the-money VIX call buying. That lowers the risk of VVIX quietly diverging ahead of an equity selloff. A VIX below 20 signals relative market calm, while VVIX just above 100 suggests VIX options are fairly priced—neither complacent, as with VVIX below 80, nor panic-driven, as above 120.
PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON REJECT/RECLAIM DBBZ TARET DAILY RANGE SUP
LONG ON ACCEPTANCE ABOVE DBBZ TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.14 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.
JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950
DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]
Notes On Structure Implications
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.
One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.
GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS
EQUITY & VOL DESK BRIEFING: FLIGHT TO SAFETY
THE TAKE: ANXIETY SPIKES AS OIL BREAKS $100 AND YIELDS HIT MULTI-YEAR HIGHS
US equities closed lower in a distinct flight-to-safety trade as an escalating macro supply shock pushed WTI Crude up +7.01% to $102.83 (breaching $100 for the first time since May) and sent the US 10-Year yield soaring +11.4 bps to 4.9565%—its highest level since November 2023. OIS markets now price a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike in September.
Despite softer top-line PPI data, PCE-relevant categories printed firmer, prompting GS Research to raise August Core PCE estimates to +0.24% MoM. Institutional activity was heavily sell-skewed (-900 bps vs. 30-day average), with both Hedge Funds (-$1B) and Long-Onlys (-$1B) finishing as aggressive net sellers across tech, macro products, and communication services. S&P MOC imbalance closed at $1.65B to SELL.
MARKET SUMMARY & ASSET MATRIX
Asset / Index | Closing Level / Price | Session Change | Volatility & Desk Color | Institutional Flows |
S&P 500 (SPX) | 7,591.00 | -0.58% | 26th consecutive session in <1% intraday band | MOC $1.65B to SELL; Friday CPI Straddle: 82 bps |
Nasdaq-100 (NDX) | 29,103.00 | -1.08% | Skew aggressively bid across the curve | Heavy HF supply in high-beta tech |
Russell 2000 (RUT) | 2,891.00 | -1.03% | Volatility cheap; Friday Straddle: 1.46% | Small-cap pressure from rising debt service costs |
Dow Jones (DJI) | 52,064.00 | -0.60% | Defensives (Telecom, Staples, REITs) green | Outperformed tech and high-beta cyclicals |
US 10Y Treasury | 4.9565% | +11.4 bps | Highest level since November 2023 | Yields re-pricing 70% chance of Sept Fed hike |
WTI Crude | $102.83 | +7.01% | Broke $100 threshold on geopolitical friction | Strong energy bid amid broader equity liquidation |
Gold | $4,321.00 | -1.74% | Pulled back as USD (+25 bps to 99.06) & rates surged | Short-term profit-taking into dollar strength |
Bitcoin | $78,114.00 | -1.52% | Risk-off correlation to tech beta | Weakness aligned with broader risk assets |
CBOE VIX | 18.03 | +9.60% | Defensive tilt; aggressive skew buying | Front-end gamma bid ahead of CPI |
SECTOR DYNAMICS & AFTER-HOURS SPOTLIGHT
Factor Rotation: Clear defensive bid for Telecom/Cable, Consumer Staples, and REITs. High-beta Semis and AI Infrastructure faced top-down sector pressure due to rate pressure. Mega-caps (AAPL) and selective Software held relative outperformance.
Oracle (ORCL) After-Hours Surge (+7% AH / +1% Regular Session):
Guidance & Beat: Reported a solid quarterly beat and raised FY27 Revenue and EPS targets. Q2 total revenue guidance set to 30–34% constant currency (CC), with Cloud revenue projected at 64–70% CC.
AI Contracts: Confirmed over $30B in AI Cloud contracts signed during the quarter.
ATM Program Completion: Completed a $20B common stock At-the-Market (ATM) equity program (before commissions) to support its capital investment roadmap.
DERIVATIVES & TACTICAL HEDGING
Dealer Gamma Shift: Dealer long gamma is now concentrated largely to the topside, freeing up spot movement to the downside if CPI surprises hot.
Institutional Flow Highlights:
NVIDIA (NVDA): GS customer bought 35k NVDA Dec 245/300 Call Spreads (delta neutral) following Jensen Huang's remarks at the GS conference.
Alphabet (GOOGL): Tactical buyers stepped in for next Friday expiry 400 Calls to trade short-term upside.
CPI Hedging Setup: Options desk recommends buying IWM September Puts as a cost-effective tail-risk hedge against a hot CPI print, citing unusually cheap small-cap implied volatility relative to macro event risk.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!