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Yuan Rallies on Better Data
The Chinese Yuan is rallying today on the back of better-than-expected data and a fresh set of economic support measures delivered overnight. The Caixin manufacturing PMI was seen moving back into positive territory last month at 51 from 49.2 prior, above the 49 the market was looking for. The unexpected move back into growth for the factory sector has helped assuage economic fears somewhat. Recent data has been trending lower, stoking concerns for the health of the economy. In response to deteriorating economic data, Chinese authorities have announced a string of measures aimed at sparking growth.
PBoC Cuts FX RRR
The PBoC announced today that it will be lowering the FX reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 2% from September 15th. This comes on the back of the bank recently reducing the loan prime rate (LPR) for the second time in three months. While encouraging, these measures fall short of the sweeping fiscal stimulus package that traders have been eyeing and as such, any upside CNH moves are likely to be short lived. Today the US jobs report holds the power to drive a fresh leg higher in USDCNH if we see any surprise upside. However, if weakness is confirmed in the jobs market, this should see the current USDCNH correction continue lower.
Technical Views
USDCNH
The correction lower from the 7.3585 highs has seen the market stalling along support at 7.2636. While this level holds, and with the rising trend line adding further support, the focus remains on further upside near-term. Should we break below here, the focus will shift to a test of the 7.1743 level next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.