Daily Market Outlook, April 27, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Risk sentiment strengthened after Iran proposed a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns that regional diplomacy was breaking down and reducing the immediate risk premium in energy markets. China's March industrial profits increased by 15.8% year over year, indicating improved corporate earnings, although this growth varied significantly across sectors. While some areas showed strong profitability due to policy support and export resilience, the recovery appears selective, raising concerns about its sustainability outside a few industries. This mixed performance offers limited support for China-sensitive assets, as broader market confidence is hindered by ongoing issues such as weak domestic demand and property sector challenges. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.7%, emerging-market equities hit a fresh record, and Asian semiconductor shares led gains, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing rising 6% to an all-time high. U.S. equity futures pointed to modest upside after last week’s record closes, while European stocks were set to open modestly higher. Brent crude pared an earlier 2.5% jump to trade about 1% higher near $106.50 a barrel, as the prospect of restored shipping through the key Gulf chokepoint tempered supply fears. The dollar slipped 0.1%.

The improvement in tone follows a weekend diplomatic setback, when President Trump cancelled a planned envoy trip and Tehran said it would not negotiate under pressure. While global equities have largely recovered from conflict-driven losses, the rally faces important tests this week from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings, as well as major technology earnings. Treasury yields were little changed, with the 10-year yield around 4.32%, as investors weighed the Justice Department’s conclusion of its investigation into the Federal Reserve and the implications for Chair Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh’s confirmation prospects, and potential rate cuts before year-end. The S&P 500 is now up nearly 10% since late March, leaving it on track for its strongest monthly performance since 2020.

Prediction markets indicate a 96% chance that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as Fed Chair by mid-May, following the dismissal of legal challenges against Jerome Powell. This has led to expectations of a more dovish policy shift and a reevaluation of potential rate cuts under Warsh. In the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing a post-local-election growth strategy focused on fiscal discipline and reforms. However, political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership due to the Mandelson scandal may hinder the government's economic messaging.

Domestically, after last month’s unanimous 9-0 MPC decision, the most likely outcome this week looks to be another hold, but with a greater risk of a hawkish dissent. The available public commentary suggests the dovish case has not advanced enough for a renewed cut vote, with Taylor’s remarks appearing more consistent with caution against tightening than an outright argument for easing. Bailey also continues to position himself as the median voter and seems firmly in the no-change camp, which should anchor the Committee around a hold.

The main uncertainty lies in the possibility of one of the hawks deviating from their stance. Greene and Pill appear closest to supporting an earlier tightening move; Mann could plausibly join given her preference for a A more “activist” approach cannot be ruled out for Lombardelli. The hawkish argument would likely acknowledge tighter financial conditions but emphasise the risk that the energy shock proves persistent, especially given Middle East infrastructure damage and the delayed pass-through via the Ofgem price cap. A repeat 9-0 hold is possible if Bailey corrals the Committee, but an 8-1 hold with one hike dissent looks like the main risk case; a more extreme split such as 1-5-3 appears possible but unlikely on current evidence.

Overnight Headlines

• Iran Offers US Deal To Reopen Strait But Postpone Nuclear Talks

• US-Iran Peace Talks Stall As Conflict Nears Two-Month Mark

• Gold Recoups Losses On Softer Dollar After Iran Peace Proposal Report

• Goldman Hikes Oil Price Forecasts On ‘Extreme’ Inventory Draws

• BoJ Seen Holding Rates In Messaging Risk For Ueda As Yen Teeters

• JGB Futures Edge Lower As BoJ’s Two-Day Meeting Kicks Off

• Bond Traders Eye Packed Week Of Rate Decisions For Sell Signals

• Warsh Confirmation Set To Advance As GOP Holdout Backs Vote

• China Industrial Profits Jump 15.8% In March Despite Oil Disruption

• Economists Rethink Chinese Forecasts As AI Fires Up Import Surge

• Soaring Stocks Face Pivotal Week Of Tech-Led Earnings, Fed Meeting

• Sun Pharma To Acquire US-Listed Organon In $12B Deal

• Nomura Shares Fall After Quarterly Earnings Miss Estimates

• Goldman, JPM Show Wall Street’s Split In Quantum Computing Race

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1450 (EU1.97b), 1.1400 (EU1.34b), 1.1650 (EU1.18b)

• USD/JPY: 157.50 ($676.2m), 150.40 ($562.4m), 160.00 ($530m)

• AUD/USD: 0.7050 (AUD711.4m), 0.6700 (AUD366.1m), 0.7065 (AUD339.7m)

• USD/BRL: 5.0750 ($1.56b), 5.0250 ($740m), 5.1250 ($730.5m)

• USD/CAD: 1.3900 ($904.9m), 1.3675 ($796m), 1.3700 ($730m)

• GBP/USD: 1.3150 (GBP1.23b), 1.3550 (GBP506.6m), 1.3455 (GBP450m)

• USD/CNY: 6.8590 ($300m)

• USD/KRW: 1500.00 ($401m), 1425.00 ($320m)

CFTC Positions as of April 24, 2026: 

• Equity fund speculators cut their CME S&P 500 net short by 12,644 contracts, bringing it to 402,253.  

• Equity fund managers increased their CME S&P 500 net long by 9,443 contracts to 1,020,550.  

• Speculators reduced their CBOT U.S. 5-year Treasury futures net short by 92,995 contracts to 1,532,750.  

• Speculators also trimmed their CBOT U.S. 10-year Treasury futures net short by 9,394 contracts to 790,971.  

• Meanwhile, speculators expanded their CBOT U.S. 2-year Treasury futures net short by 39,547 contracts to 1,743,353.  

• Their CBOT U.S. UltraBond Treasury futures net short was lowered by 536 contracts to 300,287.  

• At the same time, speculators raised their CBOT U.S. Treasury bond futures net short by 9,670 contracts to 83,786.  

• Bitcoin showed a net long position of 2,071 contracts.  

• The Swiss franc recorded a net short of 33,273 contracts.  

• The British pound remained net short at 52,039 contracts.  

• The euro posted a net long position of 41,324 contracts.  

• The Japanese yen showed a net short position of 94,460 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 7050 Target 7300

• Below 6950 Target 6850

DXY

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 98 Target 99

• Below 97.80 Target 97

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.1760 Target 1.19

• Below 1.1750 Target 1.1590

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.3430 Target 1.3610

• Below 1.34 Target 1.3290

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 158.50 Target 161

• Below 157.30 Target 156.50

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 4600 Target 5000

• Below 4500 Target 4350

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 73.5k Target 80k

• Below 72.6k Target 70.5k