Daily Market Outlook: September 8, 2026

By Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Missive - Yen Rallies As BOJ Rate Hike Bets Build

The Japanese Yen has continued its remarkable ascent, hitting its highest point since February as traders increasingly bet on a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan during its policy meeting on September 18. The Yen appreciated by as much as 1%, reaching 152.89 against the US dollar—building on a robust 1.2% increase from Monday. This momentum came as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama signalled their joint intervention. Meanwhile, Asian equities gained traction, propelled by a notable 2.4% rise in South Korea’s Kospi and strong performances from tech giants SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a promising 0.6% opening gain.

Cross-asset interactions showcased a broad easing of US Dollar strength, coupled with rising commodity prices. The Dollar Index dipped by 0.1%, while 10-year US Treasury yields fell by 1 basis point to 4.77%. Gold prices rose by 0.6%, hovering around $4,433 per ounce, benefiting from the Dollar's softness, and copper reached an impressive record high of $14,617 per tonne for the second consecutive day due to impending US tariffs on refined metals and short-term supply challenges. In the energy sector, Brent crude oil saw a 0.5% increase to $97.46 per barrel as traders balanced tight Chinese demand against ongoing diplomatic discussions between Iran and Oman regarding commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Japan's economic landscape continues to support the case for tightening BOJ policies. Finance Minister Katayama reaffirmed Tokyo's commitment to orderly currency movements following collaborative actions with US authorities. Additionally, revised second-quarter GDP figures, along with the strongest wage growth in July seen in nearly thirty years, provide solid fundamental support for a possible rate adjustment this month.

In the UK, the August KPMG/REC employment report revealed signs of stabilisation, marking the first uptick in permanent hiring since September 2022 (index at 50.5 compared with 50.0 previously), while temporary recruitment also improved to 52.4. However, the labour market remains looser than tighter: staff availability rose to 60.6, while overall vacancies fell to 47.0. Permanent salary growth reached 54.1—its highest level since January—though it still falls short of historical growth peaks. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee continues to view a softening labour market and weak consumer demand as critical factors that keep secondary inflation pressures in check.

Looking ahead, attention will shift towards US economic data and tech corporate earnings, with reports from Oracle and Adobe on Thursday serving as vital indicators for enterprise software demand and ongoing investments in AI technology. At the same time, macroeconomic desks are evaluating potential risks related to the European gas market and the long-term inflationary effects of a developing El Niño pattern as projected by NOAA.

Macro to Micro: The Yen's sharp re-evaluation and the hawkish stance of the BOJ signify a crucial structural shift for global cross-currency arbitrage strategies. While UK tech earnings improve and wage pressures ease, ongoing risks from energy price floors and tight commodity markets keep central bank policies closely linked. For traders, the immediate focus will be on managing foreign exchange sensitivity ahead of upcoming US economic reports and next week’s BOJ decision.

Overnight Headlines

  • Iran Warns US Energy Assets In Gulf Are Vulnerable After Latest Clashes

  • Zelensky Says US Exploring Russia-Ukraine Winter De-Escalation Steps

  • Russia Shuts German Consulate As Drone Dispute Escalates

  • Canada Set To Hit Back At Trump Tariffs, Risking Wider Trade War

  • Trump Threatens To Bar Sale Of Canadian Bombardier Jets In US

  • China’s Exports Pick Up Pace Amid Calls For Rebalancing Trade

  • China Hits Japan With Anti-Dumping Measures On Chip Chemical

  • Japan’s GDP Growth Revised Higher, Backing BoJ Rate-Hike Case

  • Japan’s Wages Grow Most Since 1997, Keeping BoJ On Rate-Hike Path

  • Yen Surges To Seven-Month High Ahead Of US Inflation

  • Japan 5-Year Bond Sale Sees Weaker Demand Than 12-Month Average

  • Australia’s Consumer Confidence Slumps On Rate Fears And Fuel Costs

  • Copper Hits All-Time High Amid Tariff Turmoil And Mine Struggles

  • China Tells Steel Mills To Hold Off On Buying Rio Tinto’s Ore

  • OpenAI Top Scientist Urges ‘Extreme Caution’ With Pace Of AI

  • Anthropic, OpenAI Bankers Push For Top-tier Credit Ratings Post-IPO

  • European Union Opens Door To Bigger Corporate Mergers

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

  • EUR/USD: 1.1700 (€1.28b), 1.1650 (€1.2b), 1.1400 (€862.8m)

  • USD/JPY: 158.00 ($3.19b), 160.85 ($940m), 157.00 ($900.3m)

  • AUD/USD: 0.7065 (A$1.91b), 0.7135 (A$1.07b), 0.7150 (A$542.3m)

  • USD/BRL: 5.2330 ($490m), 5.0900 ($480m), 4.8000 ($340m)

  • USD/CAD: 1.4250 ($551.7m), 1.3785 ($505.8m), 1.3800 ($336.5m)

  • NZD/USD: 0.5810 (NZ$444.2m), 0.5720 (NZ$308.2m)

  • USD/MXN: 17.10 ($366.9m)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (€695.1m)

CFTC Positions as of 4/9/26

  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 4,587 contracts to 307,558

  • Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 19,361 contracts to 927,454

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 121,452 contracts to 1,380,513

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 70,300 contracts to 909,275

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 21,222 contracts to 882,518

  • Speculators trim CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 36,734 contracts to 369,311

  • Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 12,258 contracts to 199,501

  • Bitcoin net long position is 703 contracts

  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -22,876 contracts

  • British pound net short position is -49,575 contractsEuro net

  • short position is -24,925 contracts

  • Japanese yen net short position is -92,227 contracts

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 - 7600 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish>Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 7600 Target 7800

  • Below 7580 Target 7545

DXY - 99 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 99.20 Target 99.75

  • Below 99 Target 97.50

EURUSD - 1.16 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 1.16 Target 1.1750

  • Below 1.1550 Target 1.15

GBPUSD - 1.3460 weekly  bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.3460 Target 1.3690

  • Below 1.3430 Target 1.33

USDJPY - 155 weekly bull bear level 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 155 Target 160

  • Below 155 Target 152

XAUUSD - 4510 weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 4500 Target 4655

  • Below 4500 Target 4100

BTCUSD - 76k weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 76k Target 85k

  • Below 74k Target 66.8k

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